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The groundwater resources in Jerba Island are especially sensitive to sea level rise (SLR) because the island's relief is very moderate and the altitude of the piezometric surface is close to zero. Sea water intrusion is widespread but varies from one area to another, depending on groundwater abstraction rate and economic activities. The freshwater lens is probably sustained in the eastern part of the island through the infiltration of some wastewater. To meet the expected demand growth, integrated management of all water resources will be paramount (including irrigation quotas, infiltration of treated wastewater and desalination of brackish water). In this study, we numerically investigate the impact of SLR by the implement of a 3D- FEFLOW salinity transport model for the costal aquifer in Jerba Island. The model was calibrated and validated with datasets during the 1992–2018 period. The water table and salt intrusion evolutions were estimated according multiple scenarios of climate change (8.5 and 4.5). The groundwater recharge, extraction, discharge into the aquifer, rainfall, and water need were projected according the same scenarios. For each scenario, the piezometric and salinity maps were simulated for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100. The model simulations show that the Jerba aquifer exhibits a highest sensibility to SRL and intensive extraction. The model is an essential tool for organizing a sustainable groundwater management, with the aim of preserving the agricultural and tourist activities that form the basis of the island's economy. It can be regarded as a useful tool for analyzing the water resources management and sea water intrusion for groundwater in arid and semi-arid regions and will help to propose a management rescue plan for aquifer remediation.
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The shallow aquifer of Jerba Island is particularly sensitive to sea level rise (SLR) because the island's relief is very moderate and the altitude of the piezometric surface is close to zero. Seawater intrusion is widespread along the coast, but its amplitude varies from one area to another, depending on the groundwater abstraction rate induced by different economic patterns. The freshwater lens found in the eastern part of the island is likely protected by infiltration from the return of irrigation water and some wastewater. The aquifer water balance is artificial: fresh water import from the continent and desalinated water account for 400% of rainfall infiltration. In this study, we are digitally studying the impact of sea level rise (SLR) through the implementation of a 3D-FEFLOW salinity transport model for the shallow aquifer on Jerba Island. Changes in groundwater and sea water intrusion have been estimated under various climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). Recharge, abstraction, discharge into the aquifer, precipitation and groundwater requirements were projected under the same scenarios. For each scenario, piezometric and salinity maps were simulated for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100. Simulations in the model show that the Jerba aquifer is especially sensitive to any increase in groundwater abstraction or decrease in water import and/or desalination. With an increasing water demand on the continent, it may become difficult to ensure a stable volume of freshwater imports from the continent. In this case, the survival of the freshwater lens will depend on increased use of non-conventional resources (treated sweat and desalination). This will be an essential element in preserving the orchards (palm and olive trees) and tourist activities that form the basis of the island's economy.
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